Hope for grads despite AI hysteria

As any sports fan knows, teams thrive when they have players with a variety of experience. Having a pipeline of younger players in various stages of development helps give the team new blood, cheaper talent and a way to transition from older players as they move on or retire. 

Organizations are no different. I'm on record as saying that AI is an excuse and not the reason many companies are conducting massive layoffs this year. They are using it for cover, but anyone who uses this technology on a regular basis knows it's not replacing experienced workers. Sure it can augment them, but straight out replace them? That's a stretch.

But one area where automation could have a real impact is entry level jobs. With college graduations coming up, I've been thinking about the lack of entry level jobs and what it could mean to large organizations in the years ahead. Entry level jobs are where people develop judgment and learn the fundamentals of good work. If working with AI requires a certain level of understanding to judge the quality of the output, if we don't train people in those fundamentals, who's going to be the judge?

My friend, Robert Rose, chief strategy officer at the Content Marketing Institute, recently did a series of podcasts based on his firm's annual marketer's survey. Among the results that stood out was that one in three companies reported reducing entry level hiring. He sees this as a big problem and I agree. "If we chop that off, three years from now, who are we left with? There is no more pipeline of those people,” Rose said. 

As he pointed out, entry level jobs have always been ripe for automation, whether marketing or other departments, but they have also provided an avenue for young people to learn how businesses run, how to work with customers and how to hone their own ideas.

Refreshing the pipeline

We are starting to see companies recognize that without entry level people, there's going to be a dearth of experienced employees down the road.

• AWS: CEO Matt Garman announced that the company intends to hire 11,000 engineering interns this year, a level the company says is in line with recent years.
• Salesforce: The company plans to hire 1,000 college grads and interns for AI‑related roles through its new Builder program.
• IBM: Big Blue has committed to tripling its entry‑level hiring in the U.S. this year compared with prior years, though it hasn’t disclosed a precise headcount.

With more than 280,000 employees worldwide, IBM’s pledge suggests it could end up with a much larger entry‑level cohort than Salesforce, though the company wouldn't provide a specific number when I asked.

At a media briefing during IBM Think this week, CEO Arvind Krishna pushed back on the notion that AI-driven productivity means companies need fewer workers. He argued it's actually the opposite, that more productive companies historically capture more market share and need more people to innovate and serve clients, and using AI as an excuse to hire fewer people is ceding the market to competitors.

"If you're thinking of cutting down all hiring and sort of not refreshing your workforce, you're implicitly arguing that you think you're going to be on the losing side of AI as opposed to the winning side."

Younger people are cheaper than experienced workers, often more flexible and come in with a fresh perspective and a native understanding of newer technologies that more seasoned employees need to learn.

Krishna sees young people not only bringing these qualities, but also, with AI, the potential to get up to speed understanding the business much faster than in prior times. "If AI can also make the entry level hire within a few months, be as good as the person with five or 10 years of experience, we should be doubling down on that kind of individual."

While his estimate could be more than a tad optimistic, AI does have the potential to make younger workers more competent more quickly. And organizations who cut that pipeline for short-term gains will be feeling the pinch before too long when there is no longer a bench to replace the starting lineup.

~Ron